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Wednesday, February 8 • 11:40am - 12:00pm
Technical Session. Expansion and Growth of Chronic Wasting Disease in Wisconsin

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AUTHORS: Trevor Hefley, Department of Statistics, Kansas State University; Mevin Hooten, U.S. Geological Survey, Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit,
Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Department of Statistics, Colorado State University; Daniel Walsh, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, Madison Wisconsin; Robin Russell, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, Madison Wisconsin

ABSTRACT: Within the state of Wisconsin, chronic wasting disease (CWD) was first detected in white-tailed deer in 2001 as a result of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources surveillance efforts. Continued surveillance of CWD has resulted in a large spatio-temporal data set with dense spatial coverage. Motivated by this data set, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model that captures the geographic spread and growth in the prevalence of CWD. Our results show that the geographic spread in the prevalence of CWD is influenced by landscape level risk factors (e.g., river corridors). More importantly, our results indicate a modest growth rate in the prevalence of CWD across all sex and age classes of white-tailed deer. Using our spatio-temporal model, we obtain short range forecasts (2017-2020) of the expansion and growth of CWD in Wisconsin.

Wednesday February 8, 2017 11:40am - 12:00pm CST
Grand Ballroom C