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Monday, February 6 • 2:00pm - 2:20pm
Technical Session. An Analysis of the Interactions Between Weather and Land Use on Gallinaceous Bird Populations Using Historical Data

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AUTHORS: Mandy Lipinski, Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, University of Nebraska–Lincoln; Tj Fontaine, USGS, Nebraska Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit

ABSTRACT: Concern surrounding species’ abilities to cope with a changing climate presents opportunities to look forward toward solutions while investigating historical trends to assess the interaction of land use and weather. Uncertainty surrounding population responses to increased severity and frequency of severe weather associated with climate change presents challenges for making informed management decisions for a suite of already declining wildlife populations in the Great Plains. Historical data are a rich resource for developing models predicting species’ responses to climate change and continued variation in land use. We are utilizing 30 years of historical data to model species’ responses to land use change and weather within a gradient of land use and climate in Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri. Mixed models incorporating agricultural acreages, relative abundances of gallinaceous birds from the annual Breeding Bird Survey, and historical precipitation and temperature data built at the county-level will illuminate broad scale trends and enable us to draw conclusions about future population responses. We are finding expected differences in population trends between states within a climatic gradient, and varied responses to temperature and precipitation among gallinaceous species, where different annual periods are more or less crucial for different species despite similar life history characteristics. We expect that further modeling will continue to elucidate critical thresholds for birds in the Great Plains in terms of weather and habitat, allowing us to make strong recommendations to managers preparing to deal with the implications of climate change.

Monday February 6, 2017 2:00pm - 2:20pm
Grand Ballroom D

Attendees (7)